Bitcoin short-term price analysis: 09 August
Bitcoin is currently trading at $11,700 and has a market cap of $216 billion. The coin’s surge has been undone in the last 24 hours; however, with the way bitcoin is set up, the price might shatter the $12,000 level or head lower.
With price stagnating near $12,000, a lot of people might FOMO-in if the price breaches it. However, if it is just a fakeout and the price crashes lower, then millions in longs get squeezed and hence the liquidations may take over. Two main reasons for this include the CME gap, and healthy correction.
Last time bitcoin surged exponentially was in Aril 2018, however, the correction came after hitting a temporal peak in July. As of September 2019, the price crashed by 40%. With the way the price has risen, a healthy correction has been absent. To make matters worse, CME gap at $9,925 to $9,665 is worrisome. Hence, a wick down to this level would give the go-sign for the bull run.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
BTCUSD TradingView
From the above chart, the price is forming a symmetrical triangle that looks like a continuation pattern. This might accrue a lot of longs. Should the price breach this pattern lower, then this would further help the long-squeeze.
A short position here at $11,809 with stop-loss at $12,011 and a take-profit at $10,902 would put the risk-to-reward ratio at 4.45. This is based on the expectation that bitcoin may drop 7.7% from its current position.
50 DMA [yellow] will act as perfect support catching this drop. Considering the CME gap, which is lower, this might be temporary support. Hence, it is prudent to wait for the price to clearly breach the pattern and $12,100 or levels below it before entering the trade. RSI indicator is also forming a lower low and heading towards the oversold zone, further supporting the short position.
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Akash Girimath, Khareem Sudlow
