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What Google Trends tells us about the halving

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Google searches for “bitcoin halving” have doubled since December to hit highs not seen since the last halving event in 2016. This is shown in a report from Norwegian research firm Arcane Crypto.

Relative Google search volume for "bitcoin halving"

Relative search volume for the keyword 'bitcoin halving' hit 37 in the U.S. during the week ending on January 19th. This represents an almost 100 percent increase from the average reading of 14 during the month of December, showing a similar trajectory to search volume preceding the previous halving event.

Along with showing a general rise of interest in the halving, the data also feeds into the ongoing debate over whether or not the event is already priced in.

Is the halving priced in?

A technical milestone programmed into the network, the halving event happens every four years and cuts the amount of bitcoin that is created every 10 minutes in half. As this represents a reduction of supply, the event is typically thought of as a bullish catalyst.

With just over one hundred days to go until the halving in May, many traders are wondering if this bullish event has already been "priced in", or if we are likely to see a repeat episode of 2016 when prices surged in the weeks surrounding the event.

Arcane Crypto concludes that search trend volumes are a "clear indication that awareness of the [halving] is spreading to new people," suggesting the event is not yet priced in.

The efficient market hypothesis and whether the halving is priced in was also discussed on this week’s episode of Brave New Coin’s Crypto Conversation podcast.



Kieran Smith, Khareem Sudlow