Bitcoin Technical Market Analysis 23rd August 2019
Is it right to be hopeful for superficial facts and emotionally believe in better scenarios? Of course, without belief and positive emotions, it is difficult to imagine the successful projects. However, in the crypto world, you first need to pay attention to the totality of facts, putting our belief in the best only in second place. Today, let’s try to understand whether Bitcoin buyers plan to start a growth has a chance of success and what to expect next.
After yesterday’s unsuccessful attempt by sellers to break the critical price of USD 9,900 for the second time, buyers decided to take the initiative in their own hands. It is noticeable on the hourly timeframe that sellers used too small volumes to continue a sure fall:
We also noticed the main support of Bitcoin buyers by the black line. It shows that at the moment, buyers are attacking passively, constantly touching the support. It is also confirmed by the trading volumes. If the price is fixed below this trend line, the fall will continue at least to USD 9,900 with the prospect of up to USD 9,400. After that, we can predict the test of USD 11,000.
On a daily timeframe, yesterday’s candle has a large pin. It still gives the chance for buyers to continue their growth, but this is a minor fact. Until there are not any increases in volumes, aggressive candles and a fixation above USD 10,100-10,200, we believe that the current consolidation is a correction before fall continuation.
Buyers took control and did not actively reduce their marginal position yesterday, but did not increase either:
The prospect of closing the marginal positions of buyers is big, though the same cannot be said for sellers. Seller marginal positions continue to be at historical lows. So far, we have no confidence in the actions of Bitcoin sellers regarding the chart of their positions:
Looking at the wave analysis on the 4-hour timeframe, the fall wave of 20 August from buyers corrected by 38.2%:
Therefore, the next local stop can be at USD 10,600 and the final one at USD 11,000.
That is why, it is important to see the power of buyers in the price zone of USD 10,100-10,200. Then we will choose between the scenario of USD 11,000 or USD 9,400. Will market participants cope with this challenge on weekends? See you tomorrow!
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Peter, Khareem Sudlow
